RBCT Chapter 1449 Current Situation (5k)
Chapter 1449 Current Situation (5k)
Chapter 1449 Current Situation (5k)
On the second day of April, YiKe's stock price had shown a significant decline, and the company's overall market value fell from its peak of US$2895 billion to US$2660 billion. Even the latest outstanding financial report could not save this trend.
Yike's net revenue in fiscal year 2015 reached US$1619 billion, which was still a 2014% increase compared to the booming fiscal year 21. This was not easy to achieve given the turbulent situation in the second half of last year.
However, the better Yike's 2015 financial report is, the uglier its financial report this year will inevitably be. After all, the lost US market clearly contributed 34.1% of its revenue in the financial report.
According to analysis, this is related to Yike's full focus on supplying the U.S. market in the fourth quarter and clearance sales by channel dealers.
But such an important market is not even the most critical issue for Yike now.
More important and critical than the number 34.1% is 71.2%.
This is the revenue proportion contributed by mobile phone products in Yike’s financial report.
It is still similar to last year's financial report. It is not that Yike's tablet, notebook, mobile ecology and other business revenues are not strong, but that the mobile phone business is too strong. The proportion in 2015 has increased compared to 2014% in 69.9.
Therefore, the production capacity issue of Yike Mobile has taken priority over the divestiture of the US market.
According to discussions on Wall Street, Yike's current stock price reflects the negative impact of losing the US market, but the major negative impact of production capacity issues has not been fully digested, that is, there is still room for decline.
It is said that the photoresist news from the China Wafer Manufacturing Alliance caused the fluctuation in Yike's stock price. However, such good news cannot be verified by the actual production capacity in the market, and it is inevitable that the stock price will be further hit.
Hedge funds always react faster and have a keener sense of smell. After verifying and retrieving all kinds of information, they become more greedy. It seems that Yi Ke really has no other options?
The answer to this question is increasingly being confirmed by market performance.
In the first week of April, Mars 9 Pro was frequently out of stock in the European market. At the same time, Yike seemed to be frequently trying to develop its enterprise business.
By the middle of the month, the Q2016 financial report of 1 dispelled everyone's curiosity about Yike's current true situation. Compared with the same period last year, key data such as net revenue, operating profit, and net profit all showed a significant decline.
其中，2016年的Q1净营收为293.44亿美元，同比去年Q1的524.32亿美元，下滑44.03%；运营利润97.2亿美元，同比下滑47.23%；净利润62.7亿美元，同比下滑54%。
Yike's market is sluggish, production capacity is limited, profits are declining, product costs are increasing, and, we have to add a "significant" description.
At the same time, both Apple and Samsung’s Q1 financial reports hit new highs, and many executives expressed their excitement.
“The US market is the most advanced market in the world. We are very happy to see that more and more American consumers are using Samsung phones. This is an extremely correct choice!”
"Samsung is the best mobile phone in the world and the king of Android!"
"Samsung is the smartphone sales champion, supported by consumers all over the world with their actual actions!"
Samsung is particularly excited about the Qualcomm Snapdragon this year. On the one hand, it uses the technology of Taiji and has indeed solved the problems that have plagued it for the past two years. On the other hand, it has largely inherited the vacant Android ecological niche in the US market, so naturally its sales have soared.
But Apple is more nourishing than Samsung.
Yike has secured its first place among the Big Three for two consecutive years with Mar 8.8 and Mars 9. However, this virtuous circle was broken by geopolitics. Apple, which was originally in the middle, has more space and has taken more of the market share left by Yike.
Wall Street is extremely pessimistic, competitors are dividing up the market, hedge funds are pouring in again, the industrial chain has been slow to get support, and stock prices are further frustrated...
With the release of the Q1 financial report, Yike’s production capacity constraints have become even more tragic.
After the Spring Festival, Sohu Finance tried to communicate with different guests through short videos on Douyin. After seeing Yike’s financial report, it specially invited its own leader Zhang Chaoyang to comment on the current situation.
"YiKe is still very profitable now. Although the stock price has fallen, this situation is more or less within everyone's expectations. The decline is not too bad."
"It earned nearly 420 billion Chinese yuan in the first quarter, which is net profit, and its revenue was nearly 2000 billion Chinese yuan, so it is still a large company."
"If we were Sohu, I could run around the capital three times if we could achieve this result."
"Of course, the standards are different. Whether it's our peers, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, or the general public, they all use the standards of a global large company to judge Yike."
"It should be said that we all use the standards of the world's top 50 companies to judge Yi Ke."
Zhang Chaoyang spread his hands: "Why use such a standard?"
Facing the camera, he thought about Yi Ke's current situation and couldn't help but sigh: "Because Yi Ke has indeed been in that position, and he has developed year by year in everyone's eyes."
Yike’s development history is very transparent. Its first angel investment was obtained from a TV program. Over the past few years, Yike’s products have gradually climbed to the top of the world.
Therefore, there was an unconcealable sense of frustration in Zhang Chaoyang's sigh.
It would be fine if they were defeated by commercial means, but what about being defeated by geopolitical factors?
"Mr. Zhang, how long do you think it will take to solve Yike's production capacity problem? How should Yike deal with the challenges it faces next?" asked the host of Sohu Finance.
Zhang Chaoyang shook his head twice, and after thinking for a while, he said, "The matter of Yi Ke is difficult and complicated. It cannot be explained in a few words, and almost no one can explain it clearly, but I still have expectations."
He frowned again and again, shook his head for the last time, and sighed worriedly: "This is truly a critical moment for survival."
As a veteran in the business world, Zhang Chaoyang's worries in front of the camera seemed very real to the audience, and many domestic media and even bloggers are giving advice to Yi Ke.
Regardless of whether the idea is useful or not, everyone has gradually reached a consensus that now is the critical moment for Yi Ke's survival.
On April 4, the fixed information disclosure time of Nasdaq, YiKe was rapidly catching up with the positions of the companies that were shorted earlier, with its positions reaching US$15 billion, ranking fourth.
Alibaba is worth $119 billion, Tesla is worth $110 billion, Apple is worth $106 billion, and Yike is worth $105 billion.
It was on this day that Fang Zhuo ended his inspection tour of the mainland semiconductor industry chain and returned to Shanghai to attend the recent intensive Yike General Office meetings.
"This is truly a critical moment for survival. I saw what Mr. Zhang from Sohu said. What do you think?"
Fang Zhuo had a cup of bitter coffee before the meeting, and his opening remarks were to quote the slicing video he saw on Douyin.
"It's indeed not easy." Qi He answered objectively.
Fang Zhuo nodded and said with a smile, "Yes, there is no such easy thing in the world that can be left to us. This is indeed a critical moment for survival, but the core of Bingxin is unremitting inside, and those with ambition and talent forget themselves outside, probably pursuing the glory of Yike and wanting to repay it in this critical moment."
He paused, then added: "This is truly a critical moment for survival, and it is also the time to turn the tide."
"Mr. Fang, if you record a video like this, the number of likes and reposts will definitely be high. It can also boost our stock price and boost the morale of everyone." Yu Hong said sincerely.
"I was inspired by this. There are difficulties, but there is also hope. I am very comforted to see everyone working hard on this trip." Fang Zhuo talked about his feelings during the inspection trip, "Everyone also cares about Yike and is willing to provide the greatest help within their capabilities."
Everyone nodded. No matter from which aspect, they could feel everyone's expectations and support for Yi Ke this time.
"The problem now is that we may face the possibility of the situation getting worse." Yu Hong said carefully, "We need to wait for the production capacity issue. We still have notebooks to sell this year. Intel and AMD have licenses for us, but we don't know when this line may be cut off. The company is not fully prepared. Even if the chip is designed, it still needs the support of advanced processes."
Yike's Y-Book notebooks have actually sold well in the past two years, but were overshadowed by the performance of its mobile phone products. Because of its achievements, Yike's goal for this line is to become one of the top three in the domestic market and top five in the world.
Last year, global notebook shipments were approximately 1.6444 million, down 6.3% from the previous year. Judging from this development trend, it does not seem to be a good choice for Yike to make efforts in this field.
However, Yike sold 2109 million Y-Books last year, approaching the fifth place in the world.
This effect was somewhat beyond internal expectations and is generally believed to be driven by the brand power of smartphones, which makes everyone even more dissatisfied with the positioning of a brand assembler.
However, not wanting to be a brand assembler is not just a hardware issue. The expansion of the system ecosystem, the numerous drivers, various compatibility supports, etc. are all very tricky.
From this perspective, it is already good enough to earn some hard-earned money from AMD using Bingxin's advanced technology. High value-added products do have very high tangible and intangible thresholds.
Fang Zhuo responded calmly: "Let's take it step by step. When you are pinched, you will face it. The first time is new, the second time is familiar. Once you get used to it, it will be fine."
Qi He then asked: "Mr. Fang, what kind of help can SMIC provide..."
"SMIC is not bad." Fang Zhuo simply replied.
Only a few people knew that Dr. Liang led a team to SMIC, and he did not intend to talk about such news on this occasion. SMIC is the most advanced foundry in China except for Bingxin. It is now using 20nm to manufacture the "Morning Light" series chips for Yike Optoelectronics, which is also the new choice of the latter after verifying GlobalFoundries' technology.
"We can still sell our laptops, and our smart home business is growing very well. The YMS ecosystem actually has a lot of profit to be mined, and there is also room for the development of technical service fees." Qi He listed the businesses that can make up for the revenue this year. "Yike Cloud's corporate business will probably need to be digested this year, but the performance of the European market has not been affected too much, and it may still be able to maintain a 30% growth."
The three product series of Mars, Selfy and Galaxy that are affected by production capacity at Yike are mobile phones, tablets, and notebooks, which are the core business.
Liu Qiangdong also followed the calculations: "The laptop business grew by 30%, and the revenue increased by 39 billion US dollars. The smart home business grew by about 10 billion US dollars. The YMS ecosystem had a little more advertising, which accounted for 15 billion US dollars. Yike Cloud did well this year, with an additional 20 billion US dollars. In addition, we collected some money from Yiguo, Mi Tuan, Douyin, and Yixin for technical services, which added up to 30 billion US dollars... In addition, the technology transfer fee from Yike Optoelectronics was 10 billion US dollars after a discount, which is not a small amount."
Qi He did mental arithmetic very quickly and gave an answer: "124 billion US dollars!"
Fang Zhuo couldn't help but laugh and said, "You guys are good at peeling skins. This year's revenue target is to maintain 800 billion US dollars, which is a success. Let's live through the hard times when it's time."
This is a huge drop compared to last year's standards, but Yike has grown rapidly in the past two years. If the revenue two years ago is used as a reference, 800 billion is still acceptable.
The target previously discussed within Yike was actually 900 billion, but Fang Zhuo felt that there was no need to be so nervous at this special stage.
But since we were talking about this, he continued to listen to the next plans for different businesses.
After the morning meeting ended and everyone else left, Yu Hong asked about a more promising direction: "Is Dr. Liang's R&D going smoothly at SMIC? Is there any problem with the coordination between the two sides?"
"It went smoothly. Yes, it went quite smoothly. No one was dissatisfied with the team selected by SMIC." Fang Zhuo paused and smiled, "I heard that when Dr. Liang arrived at SMIC, the first thing he said was 'The big performance can be checked', and then everyone was convinced."
"You have a good attitude and can make jokes at any time." Yu Hong has been busy from morning till night recently, and her face is a little haggard, but she herself does not feel it, and is still thinking about the company's affairs. "If Dr. Liang can successfully launch 10nm, based on this experience, if SMIC is also restricted, the maximum stock of this batch of 10nm chips will be 6000 million."
SMIC needs to increase its yield and production capacity. If everything goes well, if it encounters the same photoresist dilemma, SMIC will only have half a year's production capacity.
Yu Hong frowned and said, "It is indeed difficult to passively take a beating like this. The key is to restore the supply of photoresist. At least we can maintain the supply of basic production and get the blood flowing."
Fang Zhuo nodded slightly. He did not mention the possibility of a breakthrough in photoresist within the year, but mentioned something else: "Beijing has asked Bingxin to submit another list of special enterprise support. Now we need to concentrate more resources. Once SMIC achieves a breakthrough in 10nm, if it also encounters restrictions, it will inevitably lead to a larger-scale confrontation."
Yu Hong walked a few steps, asked the robot in the office to make a cup of coffee, then sat on the sofa and frowned, "Since Washington decided to take action against Yi Ke, it has directly imposed very strict restrictions, amended the law, kicked it out of the market, and ordered its allies' companies to do whatever it takes to kill us."
"I now feel that this is still very symbolic. I mean, if Yi Ke survives, it will be a model of resistance to Washington."
"It helps break some of the fear that people have."
Fang Zhuo smiled and said, "Boss Yu has elevated the significance. We just need to do our best in the present. Other influences and fluctuations may or may not occur. They are all natural."
He continued, "On the way back, I was thinking about Yike's market value. Later, I felt that market value is not important. We have developed various IC designs, advanced manufacturing processes, and real industrial chain companies. These are all very valuable."
Fang Zhuo also took the coffee handed over by the robot and said with a smile: "This robot is also a good achievement. Visual recognition, data processing and command understanding are much better than before."
He took a sip of coffee and said: "Yike has solved the performance problem and built a certain ecosystem. Now we can break through the production capacity limit, and everything will be fine."
Performance, ecology, and production capacity.
Yu Hong couldn't help but nod. This was a concise summary of strategic priorities.
She hesitated and asked a question: "Has there been any news about photoresist?"
Fang Zhuo calmly asked, "Why do you think so?"
"Look at your eyes." Yu Hong stared into the eyes of the man in front of her, "Your eyes seem different."
Fang Zhuo: “…”
He drank half a cup of coffee and smiled, “No, I was just praying to God by the window, hoping to receive blessings so that I can have more abilities and ideas to solve the problems we are facing.
Yu Hong looked at Mr. Fang suspiciously and started talking nonsense again.
"But God didn't give me any voice. There was only my own voice in the office." Fang Zhuo looked at his hands stirring up the business storm, "I realized that now I don't need any blessing, I am the strongest me."
"Okay, okay, stop talking nonsense. I won't guess anymore." Yu Hong felt that a certain tendency had been verified, but she stopped asking questions. It didn't seem to matter now whether the hard times were longer or shorter. Yike could survive solely on the domestic market.
This is the brand power of Yike over the years, the R&D investment over the years, and the efforts of all the people over the years.
Fang Zhuo spread his hands: "If you ask again, I will talk to you in detail."
Yu Hong glared at the man in front of her, raised her wrist to check the time and said, "I'm going to a meeting. Whether it's good or bad, no matter what uncertainties there are, you have to bear them all by yourself."
Fang Zhuo extended his hand and politely saw Mr. Yu off.
When he was the only one left in the office, he thought about the company's affairs for a while before taking out a research and development report from Xinyang Luzhou from the drawer.
Fang Zhuo looked at it carefully for a while and had to admit that he really couldn't understand it at all, but it was enough for him to understand the conclusion.
He silently recited the nouns in the report several times, then took out his pen, ink, paper and inkstone, and after a little preparation, he wrote down the eight words "polyester cyclic acrylate".
Fang Zhuo admired the eight words for a while, hesitated for a moment, and gave up the idea of hanging it in the office.
Forget it, it’s just a possibility, let’s wait for it to be implemented in practice.
Fang Zhuo sighed, suppressed the restlessness in his heart, and locked the words in the drawer.
Whether it is photoresist or Dr. Liang’s research and development, as long as one of them shows a turnaround, Yike’s current struggle will be greatly alleviated and the entire system will have more vitality.
However, the current struggle is also a really headache-inducing struggle...
Fang Zhuo is confident about the future and actually doesn't mind talking about Yike's current situation.
When he returned to Shanghai, he dealt with various tasks while taking the time to pat the newly evolved robot in his office and introduced the progress of visual algorithms to everyone.
Yike’s rough version of the robot opened the audience’s eyes, but most people in the short video comments were still asking about the production capacity of Yike’s mobile phones.
Fang Zhuo always saw this kind of questions, so he objectively explained the situation and acknowledged Yi Ke's struggles.
Such words coming from the head of Yike himself will undoubtedly become the content of news reports, but whether it is the decline in stock prices or the performance of the market, they are actually not secrets and there is nothing to hide.
only……
Within two days, Nasdaq’s data for the end of April was released. The short-selling data, which was originally thought to have a bombshell effect due to Mr. Fang’s remarks, actually decreased instead of increasing, by nearly US$20 billion.
This data from Nasdaq has become a reference for the media to measure the situation of technology easing. This sudden drop is really puzzling.
Similarly, Fang Zhuo was also quite confused. This time, there was no wolf coming, no changes in market capacity, and no good news. How come the short sellers made another small run?
Gasoline man Kong Yu gave his own opinion on this situation: "Mr. Fang, they may not understand your honesty and think that such a statement is a fraud, so..."
Mr. Fang's frankness had caused others to suffer a great loss, and he was often harsh in his words. Suddenly, this happened...
Therefore, those with psychological trauma took emergency measures to avoid risks, leading to such a bizarre scene.
Fang Zhuo sneered: "This can be considered influential, right?"
"Yes, this is definitely Mr. Fang's wide-ranging influence." Kong Yu praised, "They also thought we set a trap, which is pure villain's heart to judge a gentleman's belly!"
Fang Zhuo gladly accepted the praise. Traps are traps, but this time the upright research and development was a trap set by a gentleman openly. If anyone stepped into it again, he would be killed.
(End of this chapter)